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Featured Game | Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets Moneyline Spread Total MIA DEN Let's take the 10,000-foot view here: Denver has held Miami below 100 points twice, and while Denver's defense Russell Wilson Jersey has improved considerably from where it was a few years ago, no one would mistake it for an elite unit. They're averaging 100 points exactly acro s their last seven games. They've shot 40% or better from 3-point range in nine playoff games. In those games, they've averaged just under 118 points per game. When they've been below 40%? They've averaged 104 points. Despite reaching the Finals, the Heat rank 13th out of the 16 playoff teams in 2-point field goal percentage this postseason NFL Denver Broncos Jersey . Put more simply: the Heat have one move. Their only path to victory is making a bunch of 3's. That's it. It might happen, but it would be irresponsible to bet on it happening when they shot 34.4% in the regular season. Eventually their shooting luck is going to run out. The Pick: Nuggets -3.5The Heat may be overshooting expectations this postseason... but the Nuggets are undershooting during the Finals. They're at 32.9% in three games against Miami after making 37.9% in the regular season. Is . really going to maintain his 3-of-19 shooting pace from deep in this series? How about at 2-of-9? There's shooting variance to be mined for favorable scoring performances in this series... it's just coming from the Nuggets, not the Mark Schlereth Jersey Heat. The line here has dropped so much the Nuggets should be able to reach it comfortably even if the Heat regre s from deep. The Pick: Over 210.5 There's room for a bit of fear on the Porter front, not nece sarily because he's shooting poorly, but because Nuggets coach Michael Malone has proven so comfortable pulling him when he struggles. Porter has played just 47 minutes in the past two games, but the 21 points he's scored in the three Finals games Denver has played thus far represent his lowest-scoring three-game stretch since his rookie season, when his role in the rotation was entirely different. History says Porter can't po sibly play any worse than he has thus far in the Finals. The Pick: Porter Over 10.5 PointsI bet the under on points in Game 3 and mi sed... but the logic made sense. He scored 28 points to squeak past the line, but needed 24 shots to do it. He'd been held below 25 in five of his previous seven games Peyton Manning Jersey , and it visually looks like he's still dealing with pain from the ankle injury he suffered against the . It's not in Butler's nature to force shots the way he did in Game 3. If we a sume volume closer to where he was in Games 1 and 2, he probably isn't going to post enormous overall scoring numbers. The Pick: Butler Under 26.5 Points has 10 a sists in all three games of the Finals, but before this series, he'd reached eight in just four of Denver's 15 games in the first three rounds. He averaged 6.2 a sists per game in the regular season, and if Miami is going to blitz him in pick-and-roll as often as it did in Game 3, he's going to rack up P.J. Locke III Jersey plenty of secondary a sists by pa sing into 4-on-3's, but he won't be credited with actual a sists if his teammates simply find the open man off the mismatches he creates. The Pick: Murray Under 7.5 A sists
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